Beware of outcomes thinking in complex environments
Assuming an experiment will scale, or replicate in a different context.
The fact that something works in one context (for example a particular hospital) does not mean that the outcome can be replicated in another place even if it similar. Each specific context is not fully knowable, and the interaction of agents in each context will be different in each case. We can replicate starting conditions and monitor for emergent patterns, damping and amplifying according to their efficacy but replication of outcome is not possible. I can understand this. A common senior management needs seems to be for a recipe with a known outcome. The researcher or consultant working with complexity does their client no favours by pandering to this need. better to be honest up front and set the expectations. Complexity interventions create unique contextually appropriate solutions. They do not replicate, neither do they necessarily scale.
Using outcome based targets for other than ordered systems in equilibrium states
Outcome assumes causality and repeatability. In a complex system this is not possible. Any attempt to create an outcome will be subject to the law of unintended consequences. You may get what you targeted, but the system adjusts in ways that may not be beneficial. For example setting a target to reduce time in an A&E unity, achieved the target but at the cost of occupying ward beds (people were shipped out just before the target deadline) as a result of which operations had to be cancelled. The classic response is to set a target for operations, but then there is another unintended consequence. The cycle of more and more targets produces a perverted system with so many measures that contextualisation and innovation are stifled in a blame culture.
- Dave Snowden
NOTES
This reminds me of the cascade of interventions in birthing.
And it goes to show that organisations are not complex adaptive systems, they have many heads with their own agendas that are not in tune with the other heads. In fact if you could hear an organisation sing it would be discordant.
(Source: cognitive-edge.com)
